May 4th, 2016


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Scottish Conservatives on course for opposition

The SNP are set to increase their majority at the Scottish Parliament according to our seat predictor.

Today’s Poll of Polls (the average result from 6 polling companies most recent surveys), when plugged in to the predictor shows that the SNP are set to take 70 seats on Thursday’s election, up one seat from 2011.

The Scottish Conservatives, led by Ruth Davidson, are on course to become the official opposition party, with 24 seats according to the predictor. The Poll of Polls will see the Tories add another 9 MSPs to their Holyrood team – the biggest increase for any of the parties.

Scottish Labour drops 14 seats to 23 MSPs. The Liberal Democrats would lose one seat while 8 Green MSPs are set to be elected, 6 more than in 2011.

For the constituency vote the Poll of Polls puts the SNP on 51%, Scottish Labour on 21.33%, Conservatives on 17.66% and the Liberal Democrats on 6.16%. For the regional vote the SNP are on 44.66%, Scottish Labour 19.83%, Conservatives 18.33%, Liberal Democrats 5.5%, Greens 7.83% and UKIP on 2.6%.

Weber Shandwick’s Head of Public Affairs Conor Magowan, said: “Polling over the course of 2016 has consistently indicated that the SNP will be returned with another majority on 5th May. The knife-edged battle for second place has been a more interesting race for seasoned political observers.

“Our Poll of Polls indicates that another big shift in Scottish politics is underway, with the Scottish Conservatives very narrowly set to replace Labour as the opposition in Holyrood.”




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