Battleground Seats

The battleground for the 2007 election will be in Scotland’s most marginal seats.  Due to the 4 party split in Scotland, there are quite a number of seats that could change hands with a fairly small swing.  For example, Labour would lose Cumbernauld and Kilsyth to the SNP with just over a 1% swing and Nicola Sturgeon only requires a 3% swing for her to take Govan for the SNP.

The list to the right highlights the top 15 most vulnerable seats. There are a number of seats in this table where the SNP, Liberal Democrats and Conservatives will have to work hard to maintain their gains at the last election.  However, and crucially in terms of any potential change of government, there are a number of seats where Labour are at risk of losing, principally to the SNP with a fairly small swing.

The selection of these 15 seats is based purely on the result of the last election and the low percentage swing required for a change of MSP.

Cunninghame North
Ochil
Dunfermline West
Aberdeen Central
Stirling
Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale
Eastwood
Livingston
Falkirk West
Argyll and Bute
Glasgow Govan
Linlithgow
Kilmarnock and Loudoun
Edinburgh Central
Central Fife

Each of the parties will have decided on their own key target seats. The tables below are based purely on the percentage swing required to take the seat. Each of the parties will have decided their own key targets on the basis of swing required, local canvas return information and local intelligence.