Unless there is a cabinet revolt, which seems unlikely, Alex Salmond plans to postpone the referendum bill until after the 2011 election because the unionist parties will vote it down. But the world’s foremost expert on referenda says it is still possible to consult the people. In a piece for The Herald which was overlooked during the summer holidays, Dr Matt Qvortrup,  explained it was not necessary for the SNP to get parliamentary approval for a plebiscite
Dr Qvortrup, author of A Comparative Study of Referendums: Government by the People said: 

“The referendum can be held after a so-called Order in Council, or by a Scottish Statutory Instrument (SSI). That is to say, the First Minister can decide to simply use his executive powers to have a consultation.

He went on:

“The result would be only advisory. But that would be unimportant from a constitutional point of view. For, as constitutionalists know, all referendums in Britain have been advisory only. The fundamental legal fact in the British constitution is that parliament is sovereign and cannot legally be bound by a decision of the people. Politically, however, the situation is different. It would be exceptionally hard for a majority in parliament to reject the will of the people, as expressed in such a referendum.”

Politically, such a move could put the Holyrood unionist opposition and the coalition Westminster government in a very tricky situation. If this consultative exercise included a devo max option alongside full independence, the outcome would certainly be a majority of Scots opting for radical change. That would put the SNP in a powerful position going into the 2011 election and, afterwards, if they formed a government. Whatever happened, the flawed Calman proposals would be holed below the water.

I am aware that this a sharp-intake-of-breath suggestion.  The opposition could sink it with a no confidence vote. Would they dare? If they did, the issues at stake would be made very clear indeed. It should at least be examined.

A poll by Ipsos-Mori taken in August showed Labour on 37% with the SNP on 34%. This is an 8 point increase for Labour since the February poll and despite being so close the SNP have seen a decline in the same period, as have the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.

A YouGov poll for the SNP taken at the same time has also shown the party is neck and neck with Labour and closing the gap – the poll put the SNP on 35% with Labour on 36%.

The SNP have said that in all cases they are in a stronger poll position than at this point prior to the 2007 election. 

YouGov figures show:

LAB 36%

SNP 35%

LDEM 12%

CON 14%

OTH 3%

Ipsos-Mori figures show:

Holyrood Constituency:

 CON 11%

 LAB 37%

LDEM 13%

SNP 34%

Holyrood Regional:

CON 12%

LAB 38%

LDEM 12%

SNP 29%

Indeed, on the day of the general election, eager beaver Peter Murrell, the SNP’s chief executive, had prominently displayed in SNP HQ a sign that said “364 days to go”.

While innovative manifestos and battle-hardy candidates are critical, in reality I suspect it will be the presentation of the people and policies that will make or break Scotland’s political parties. Never has this been more true for the SNP. Alex Salmond’s team have to convince voters they are ready for another term – one which will undoubtedly be the toughest any Scottish government has had to face.

Apart from devising a bargain basement manifesto, the greatest challenge the SNP faces is how to return to government with a greater share of the vote. I think this can only be done if the gender imbalance in the party’s support – the lower number of female supporters to male – is tackled.

It’s a strange situation for the SNP to be in given their long line of successful female politicians and decent record in representation of women in elected and party posts. Yet it is a long-standing problem. Strong women from Winnie Ewing to Margo MacDonald and now Nicola Sturgeon have been the public face of female nationalism. Clearly role models are not enough as this hasn’t translated into votes.

In my last job as a special adviser to the SNP government (and the only female adviser, I may add) the male-centric focus of politics could be a bit disheartening – something which ex-Labour ministers Cathy Jamieson, Susan Deacon and Wendy Alexander found in St Andrew’s House according to an equality report published earlier this year.

Overcoming the male-centric focus of politics could be the making of the SNP in next year’s poll. In a tight battle, increasing female support might tip the balance. Just think, if the SNP had as many female as male votes in 2007 there would have been an additional three per cent swing to the SNP in the list vote which would have made this term somewhat easier. This is also important as ultimately it is the list vote that determines who will be First Minister.

Let’s be clear – gender balance is taken seriously within the SNP leadership. Efforts have been made to soften the party’s image. During the 2007 election a major push was made in education and health policy to attract the female vote. However if real gains are to be made in this department a concentrated campaign is needed and the adoption of a more women-friendly approach to campaigning.

A recent academic paper by Professor James Mitchell, Women and the Scottish National Party, outlined challenges for the SNP’s electoral progress: women are more likely to support “more powers” than independence; and there is also a lack of female party members.

The most recent YouGov polls on independence show that while men are more likely than women to vote “yes”, the margin isn’t that big. An interesting factor is the higher proportion of women in the “don’t know” category. To win women over in the indy debate I believe a positive narrative on independence is needed which breaks down the case issue by issue. Winning women over on the economic case post-downturn will be pivotal.

Polling shows that many women are strongly opposed to Trident and supportive of increasing Holyrood’s responsibilities, for example.

Some chinks of light are coming through in tackling the membership imbalance – for example in the SNP Women Network in Edinburgh with Shirley Anne Somerville MSP. But this needs to be more widespread. New members could also be attracted by encouraging women to be engaged in the less formal side of party politics.

Scottish Labour has a strong record in balanced parliamentary representation and party membership. According to Labour, of the 2,500 new members who have joined the party in Scotland since the general election the ratio of women to men is around 2:1. This is ground the SNP needs to make up. Particularly given a 66 per cent male membership, a majority of male voters in the 2007 Holyrood election and the fact that 14 of its 47 MSPs in Holyrood are women compared to Labour’s even split.

In spite of this, increasing female representation to attract female support is just part of the solution. Adopting a more positive and less rough-and-tumble approach to political communications is absolutely critical. All too often, not just women, but men also, are turned off by the hard words of the political debate.

It would also be good to see some of the SNP’s talented female backbenchers as well as female ministers begin to take a more prominent role.

The First Minister often described himself to me as “an optimist”. Well I would profess to share that view. The challenges the SNP faces in gender balance are opportunities, which, if given sufficient backing could be the critical factor that secures that coveted second term.

Current SNP MSP Jim Mather is standing down at next year’s elections and Mr Russell is hoping to retain the seat in his home constituency.

Mr Russell said: “I am very excited to have been chosen by the Argyll and Bute SNP members to fight this seat at next May’s Holyrood election.

“Now to get the chance to contend for the honour of representing my friends and neighbours in this beautiful and diverse constituency is a dream come true and I will be working flat out to follow on from Jim Mather’s impressive victory in 2007.”

Bill Aitken, Conservative (Glasgow)

Rhona Brankin, Labour (Midlothian)

Ted Brocklebank, Conservative (Mid Scotland and Fife)

Margaret Curran, Labour (Glasgow Baillieston)

George Foulkes, Labour (Lothians)

Trish Godman, Labour (West Renfrewshire)

Robin Harper, Green (Lothians)

Chris Harvie, SNP (Mid Scotland and Fife)

Cathy Jamieson, Labour (Kilmarnock and Loudon)

Jim Mather, SNP (Argyll and Bute)

Ian McKie, SNP (Lothians)

Alasdair Morgan, SNP (South of Scotland)

John Farquhar Munro, Liberal Democrat (Ross, Skye and Inverness West)

Jamie Stone, Liberal Democrat (Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross)

Andrew Welsh, SNP (Angus)

The poll was carried out by TNS-BRMB, who interviewed 1000 people about they would support in the upcoming Scottish elections next year.

Figures showed that the Conservatives had dropped from 13 percent to 10 percent in the first-past-the-post vote and 12 percent to 11 percent in the regional vote.

However, the story was different for their Lib Dem coalition partners, who many thought would suffer badly. Their first-past-the-post and regional votes have remained unchanged at 11 percent and 12 percent respectively.

Both Labour and the SNP have increased their popularity with Labour coming out on top.

Chris Eynon, from TNS-BMRB, said: “While the SNP has recorded a slight recovery from their low point in May to lie close to their actual share of vote in 2007, the poll confirms the recent surge in support for Labour.

“At 46 percent , they now lie 14 percent ahead of their nearest rivals and must feel optimistic about regaining power in Scotland in May 2011, barring any mishaps – which are less likely now with Labour in opposition both nationally and in Scotland.

A raft of questions probing voter cynicism reveals a significant decline in skeptical attitudes between August 2009 and May 2010.

The percentage saying MPs cared more about themselves than voters dropped 11 points from 75% to 64%. Those saying a change of government doesn’t really change anything fell from 52% to 44%.

The trend would tend to suggest that the campaign has gone some way to help heal some of the scars of the MPs’ expenses scandal, but does not take account of reactions to the formation of the coalition government.

The poll also looks at how communications techniques impacted on the votes cast. The percentage saying that political parties do not communicate in a relevant way fell from 61% to 54%. But those saying that the personality of the party leader helped them decide how to vote also fell from 46% to 33% – despite the apparent impact of the TV debates.

When asked what communications techniques had an impact on their voting decision, those polled put national TV news at 37%, the televised debates at 34%, with party political broadcasts and advertising at 27%. National print media was ranked at 22% and local print and broadcast media at 21%. News websites polled 20%. Friends and family influence 18%, traditional canvassing 14% and official party activity online 13%.

Interestingly, the impact of social media, such as blogs, Twitter and Facebook, was low at 6%.

Lib Dem voters seem to be the most open-minded in the campaign, with 67% making their decision during the campaign itself, versus 52% for Labour and 45% for the Conservatives.

Commenting on the survey, Weber Shandwick’s CEO Europe, Colin Byrne said: “It’s part of the new politics that the public is becoming more engaged and less cynical about politicians – a real case of man bites dog.

“The Weber Shandwick poll also reveals the enduring power of television. Even if it did not translate into seats for Nick Clegg, it has lent credibility to his assumption of the role of Deputy Prime Minister. If Lib Dem voters are the most open-minded, one might also expect them to be the most tolerant of the novel power-sharing deal forged by this new government.

He continued: “Finally, it is fair to say that we did not see a digital election – but we should expect the role of social media to grow steadily in elections to come. We should expect much higher figures for the impact of online campaigning when we reach the 2015 General Election.”

Polling methodology and timing

Results are from a nationally representative online survey of 1,021 adults, age 18 and above, conducted by KRC Research from 7th-9th May 2010. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. The pre-wave research was conducted among 1,017 adults, aged 18 and above, from 17th to 23rd August 2009.

His recommendations include a tax cuts package of:

• 21% tax rate drops to 18%
• 33% and 38% rate drops to 24%
• Company rate drops to 24%

For more information see the excellent Kiwiblog by David Farrar here:

http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2010/05/sir_rogers_alternative_budget.html

Sir Roger was at the heart of privitisation under the Labour Government in the 1980’s and then joined ACT, a free market liberal party.

Total Politics, in association with Weber Shandwick, have produced a nice big poster showing the affiliation of each constituency after the election. It is A1 size. You can either print off the form and send in your order, or order online HERE. Anticipated despatch date is 1 June. It’s £9.99 plus £2 p&p.

In addition the new battleground seats can be viewed here showing how the results of the general election will influence the parties as they plan for the next election.  Some interesting new marginal seats appear on the list including Banff and Buchan, Gordon and Falkirk.

The next general election is currently planned for 2015 assuming the new coalition government succeeds with its plan for a five year fixed term Parliament.  The seat predictions are based on the current Scottish constituency boundaries for Westminster.  It is likely that the boundaries will change if the government follows through on its plan to reduce the number of seats in the House of Commons.