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Opinion Polls Vs Result

May 9th, 2011

 

We now know the actual result of the election, but how did that compare to what was predicted in the opinion polls?

Constituency Vote

On the constituency vote the poll by Ipsos Mori, carried out nearly 2 weeks before election day, was the closest to the actual result.  However, Weber Shandwick’s Poll of Polls issued on the eve of the election provided the closest result getting each party’s share of the vote within 1% of the actual result.

Regional Vote

Ipsos Mori were again the most accurate pollster on the regional result, particularly with the strength of the SNP vote, however they still overestimated the Lib Dem and Labour votes.

Prediction of seats

The final Weber Shandwick Poll of Polls predicted 59 seats for the SNP, 42 for Labour, 7 for the Lib Dems, 12 Conservatives, 8 Greens and 1 Independent.    This was some 10 seats short for the SNP.

The Poll of Poll prediction of seats didn’t predict the SNP majority, simply no opinion poll predicted the strength of the SNP vote on the regional list.

So where did the polls go wrong?  It looks like the pollsters generally predicted the constituency vote fairly accurately, however very few opinion polls put the SNP above 40% for the regional vote.  As we know now a strong constituency plus a strong regional result means that a party can literally sweep the board.

There is some comfort for the ScotlandVotes.com seat predictor though.  In the early morning of 6 May as the national share of the vote was beginning to become clear the election predictor tool was one of the first outlets to predict a majority for the SNP – suggesting 67 seats versus 42 for Labour, 12 Conservative, 4 Lib Dem, 3 Green and 1 Independent.  So, when the figures are correct the election predictor is correct!  We just need some accurate opinion polls now!

The new election predictor

The ScotlandVotes.com election predictor is currently being updated.  We will have the new predictor working within the next day and be sure to tell you when it is active.


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SNP majority looks possible

May 6th, 2011

 

Plugging the currently declared national figures in to ScotlandVotes.com suggests that the SNP could emerge with a majority in the new Scottish Parliament.   The potential results could be:

SNP 67

Labour 42

Con 12

LD 4

Green 3

Ind 1


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Election day: Seats to watch

May 5th, 2011

 

With polling stations across the country now open, ScotlandVotes has compiled a list of key seats that will  determine who will be Scotland’s next First Minister.

The ScotlandVotes website provides a list of the 15 battleground seats, including statistics, candidate profiles and target seats for each party on the website.

In addition to the seats that are statistically classed as battleground – ie most vulnerable to change – given the current polling results you should also watch out for a number of highly-contested constituency seats in what promises to be an action-packed election night across the country.  Here is our run down of the seats worth staying up for.

Aberdeen South and Kincardine North

Former Scottish Lib Dem leader Nicol Stephen’s decision to step down – as well as sizeable boundary changes – means this seat will be one to watch tonight.

The Lib Dems are desperate to retain Nicol Stephen’s seat, with his would-be successor, John Sleigh, defending a notional majority of 2000.

Mr Sleigh’s main contender is the SNP’s former Minister for Schools and Skills, Maureen Watt, who has served as North East list MSP since April 2006. The Tories’ Stewart Whyte – a history teacher – and Labour’s Greg Williams – an Oxford graduate working in the oil industry – are expected to battle it out for third place.

Argyll and Bute

With the ever popular incumbent Jim Mather stepping down, Argyll and Bute was always going to be a key seat in the fight for Holyrood. However, the SNP’s decision to field one of its heavyweights has further spiced up this particular contest.

With a majority of only 800, the SNP’s Education Secretary Michael Russell will be contesting the seat against the Lib Dems’ Alison Hay – former leader of Argyll and Bute Council – and Jamie McGrigor – Highland and Islands list MSP since 1999.

Labour candidate Mick Rice will be eager to build on the increased vote Labour secured in Argyll and Bute during last year’s UK Parliament election.

Caithness, Sutherland and Ross

Yet another key seat where the incumbent – Lib Dem Jamie Stone on this occasion – is retiring.

Lib Dems’ candidate, Robbie Rowantree, a local Highland Councillor and former Tory candidate, will be hoping to secure the party’s previous 2000+ majority in Scotland’s most northerly mainland seat.

Challenging the Lib Dems’ majority is Rob Gibson, who has served as Highlands and Islands list MSP since 2003 and who came second in 2007. A strong local campaigner and previous Ross and Cromarty councillor, Mr Gibson will be hoping to spring one of the election upsets.

Dumfriesshire

Boundary changes have blown this seat wide open as Labour’s Elaine Murray fights for her political future against the Conservatives, who now hold a notional majority of around 600.

Ms Murray has served the area ever since the Scottish Parliament was established, having previously gained a PhD in Chemistry and worked as a lecturer at the Open University.

The Tories’ candidate, Gillian Dykes, is currently a councillor for Mid and Upper Nithsdale and worked as a senior caseworker / researcher for the former presiding officer Alex Fergusson.

Edinburgh Central

Currently a Labour-held constituency, Edinburgh Central is described as being situated at “the heart of devolved Scotland”. The seat contains the Scottish Parliament, the First Minister’s official residence and the Scottish Government’s headquarters.

The incumbent, former Transport Minister Sarah Boyack, has held the constituency for the last 12 years and is defending a notional majority of 700.

However, Ms Boyack is fighting for this crucial seat against the Lib Dems’ energetic candidate Alex Cole-Hamilton. In a video blog for ScotlandVotes in February of this year, Lib Dem blogger Caron Lindsay claimed that Mr Cole-Hamilton has “built a lively, grassroots campaign where he has knocked on 10,000 doors since last summer”.

The SNP’s Marco Biagi and the Conservatives’ Iain McGill are also fighting for votes in this constituency.

Glasgow Kelvin

It could be fourth time lucky for Sandra White as she aims to wrestle Glasgow Kelvin from Labour’s Pauline McNeill.

A constituency which covers Glasgow’s three universities and the city centre is being touted as a potential shock gain for the SNP. In 2007, Pauline McNeill won the seat with a majority of 1207 ahead of Ms White, with the Greens’ Martin Bartos coming third with nearly 3,000 votes.

This year, with no Green candidate and significant boundary changes, the fight for Glasgow Kelvin will be another nail biting contest on election night.

Glasgow Southside

The battle for Glasgow Southside started twelve months ago, and the campaign has been in full swing ever since.

With significant boundary changes giving Labour a notional majority of 27, Glasgow Southside is on a knife-edge between Labour and the SNP.

Rumours suggest that canvass returns are indicating a victory for SNP’s Deputy Leader Nicola Sturgeon. Her opponent, Cllr Stephen Curran, a high-profile Glasgow City Councillor, will be confident for staging an upset. However, neither candidate will be complacent – especially with so much still to play for on polling day.

Elsewhere, Lib Dems’ candidate, Cllr Ken Elder, and Tories’ Cllr David Meikle, are left vying for third place.

Midlothian South, Tweedale, and Lauderdale

Another sizeable boundary change has turned a previously Lib Dem seat into a constituency where the SNP has a notional majority of a whopping 1200.

The SNP will be optimistic – especially as the Nationalists are fielding a strong candidate in Christine Grahame, who has served as a high-profile South of Scotland list MSP since 1999.

Jeremy Purvis, the Lib Dems’ Finance and Economy spokesperson, is challenging Ms Grahame in what may well be a photo-finish as the two horse race hits the home straight.

The Labour and the Conservative candidates are expected to be fighting for third place.

Stirling

The SNP incumbent, Bruce Crawford, and Labour’s John Henry are gearing up for another historic battle in Stirling.

With boundary changes handing the advantage to Labour, Mr Crawford is facing a tough fight to regain the seat that he dramatically won in 2007.

His main contender, John Hendry, has served as a local Labour councillor for over 30 years, and was Stirling’s provost between 1988 and 1992.

Meanwhile, the Tories are fielding Neil Benny, the youngest councillor in Stirling Council, while local activist Graham Reed will be battling it out for the Lib Dems.


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Final Poll of Polls confirms SNP lead

May 4th, 2011

 

The final Weber Shandwick Poll of Polls suggests that on Friday Alex Salmond will be re-elected as First Minister with 12 extra MSPs allowing him to form a much stronger minority government.  For votes in the new Parliament Mr Salmond would only require the support of six extra MSPs to pass legislation – these could come from any one of the other parties allowing a broad range of policies to be passed.

Using the ScotlandVotes.com election predictor the final Poll of Polls sees the SNP with 59 seats (+12), Labour 42 (-4), Conservatives 12 (-5), Greens 8 (+6), Liberal Democrats 7 (-9), and Margo Macdonald would also retain her seat.

For the constituency vote the poll puts the SNP on 44%, Labour on 32%, Conservatives on 12% and the Liberal Democrats on 8%.  For the regional vote the SNP are on 38%, Labour on 31%, Conservatives on 12%, Liberal Democrats on 7% and the Greens on 7%.

Weber Shandwick’s Scottish managing director, Moray Macdonald, said:  “The SNP will be very excited by numbers like these.  Not only should they manage to get the majority of their legislation passed, but there would be a majority in the Parliament in favour of a referendum on independence.  These latest figures would see 68 MSPs elected on the basis of supporting independence – providing a majority of three over those supporting the maintenance of the United Kingdom.

“The trend from all the polls is clear that the SNP are making big gains.  However, to pull this off the SNP need to win previously solid Labour and Lib Dem seats – there is a big question about whether they can do this in the seats that matter.

“The other major news from this poll is the Lib Dems falling in to fifth place behind the Greens.  The Greens look set to achieve their ambition of one MSP from each of the regions.”

Weber Shandwick Public Affairs calculated the poll using an average of the three most recent opinion polls.

The six Weber Shandwick Poll of Polls has seen a clear trend since March with the SNP gaining seats in the new Parliament.  The number of seats that each party would have gained from each Poll of Polls is shown in the table below.  All calculations through www.scotlandvotes.com :

 

Labour SNP LD Con Green Ind – Margo Macdonald
22/03/2011 60 45 9 12 2 1
30/03/2011 60 46 7 12 3 1
07/04/2011 57 51 5 13 2 1
19/04/2011 51 54 6 12 5 1
26/04/2011 43 60 8 12 5 1
01/05/2011 42 59 7 12 8 1

 


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Social media and the election

May 4th, 2011

 

Over the last few days we have posted articles from the communication people involved in the election campaign for some of the main parties.  We hope to have further insights over the next wee while.

Once again many people asked whether this would be the election campaign where the internet or social media played a decisive role.  Certainly social media has been used extensively by the media, candidates and the various party HQs, but has it had any cut through with the voters?  Is it more a case of the political classes speaking to themselves?

Tim Reid, political correspondent for the BBC, looked in to the issue after issuing a request for information via Twitter.  Here is his report on the impact of social media on the Scottish election campaign:

Listen!


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Scotland holds the key to AV

May 3rd, 2011

 

Is the AV referendum being swallowed up by all the campaigning and election buzz about at the moment? Both the ‘Yes’ and the ‘No’ camps have been campaigning furiously up and down the country but it seems that they may not have convinced voters to turn out to vote in the referendum on Thursday.

While the ‘No’ camp says that AV is unfair, costly and extremely complex. The ‘Yes’ camp argues that this is our one chance to change the face of voting in the UK – it eradicates ‘safe’ seats, MPs have to work harder for constituents and it offers a good form of proportional representation.

The ‘Yes’ camp will be hoping that Scottish voters exercise their right to vote on Thursday as Scotland appears to be key to the success of the AV referendum. A YouGov poll has shown that Scottish voters were 41% to 39% in favour of AV where the rest of the UK was 41% to 40% against.

The AV argument has divided politicians, leading to clashes in the Cabinet, and united the most unlikely of bedfellows; Prime Minister David Cameron has been campaigning against AV alongside former Labour minister John Reid, whilst the Lib Dem’s Vince Cable has teamed up with Labour leader Ed Miliband.

The people of Scotland appear to hold the balance of power in a referendum that really could go either way. But one thing’s for sure, if the result doesn’t go the way Nick Clegg hopes there won’t be another proposed change for a very long time.


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