Jeff Breslin at SNP Tactical Voting has uploaded an interesting post, Anti-Tory Tactical Voting, looking at how people might want to vote tactically against potential Tory wins in Scotland if they want to further the cause for independence.

Whether you agree with Jeff’s ultimate aim or not, it is an interesting analysis of the seats that the Scottish Conservatives are looking to make gains in.  Of course, if the Tories are successful in winning currently held SNP seats like Angus and Perth and North Perthshire then it  will be so much more difficult for Alex Salmond to hit his increasingly unlikely target of 20 SNP MPs.

The SNP target of 20 MPs was always going to be very difficult from a base of 7 MPs.  Interestingly, out of the top 15 most marginal seats (see our Battleground Seats section) the SNP are in second place in only one – Ochil and South Perthshire.  Labour and the Conservatives are second in five of the seats and the Lib Dems are in second place in four of the seats.

Of course, if the SNP do get a huge swing towards them then the battleground changes from the seats with the smallest majorities to the seats with majorities less than the swing to the SNP.  The latest poll has shown the SNP in its most advantageous position for some time on 34% against Labour on 32%, Lib Dems on 12% and the Tories on 15%.  According to the ScotlandVotes seat predictor that would see the SNP with 14 MPs, 8 more MPs than in 2005 with 6 gained from Labour and 2 from the Lib Dems.